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Thus, if a maximum possible score achievable for these exams was assumed, a factor could be generated-we called this the daily score improvement factor (DSI)-to calculate improvement per day of study. This method assumed all CBSSAs generate a score that is a reasonable surrogate for a student’s Step 1 score at the time the practice exam was taken. Ĭalculating the Average Daily Score Improvement FactorĪ model was generated under the premise that as students continue to study between their CBSSAs and Step 1 exams, their score would improve by a certain factor. Previously, the NBME stated in CBSSA score reports that CBSSA scores could predict a Step 1 score within 13 points 67% of the time if taken within 1 week of the actual test. Given that rescheduling fees can increase dramatically-sometimes as high as hundreds of dollars -as test day draws closer, the ability to project students’ exam scores weeks in advance would be highly practical (Table ​ (Table1). Amongst the validated literature, there are very few prediction models to assist students, especially a number of days out from their examination to show they are on the right track. Given the high-stakes nature of the examination, if students do not achieve scores close to their goal, they likely consider changing their examination date to accommodate more time to study if allowed by their program.

Students begin to prepare earlier for the examination and are using third-party vendors for question banks and study tools. Medical students are acutely aware of this phenomenon and seek to improve their performance on this high-stakes examination. found that 83% of Orthopedic Surgery program directors responding to their survey used USMLE Step 1 score cut-offs to screen applications. Despite the USMLE cautioning such use of the exam back in 1993, Schrock et al. This is most likely because some studies have shown the examination to predict success in residency and future board examinations. However, much to the dismay of some, in recent years, students’ Step 1 scores have been used increasingly more frequently to rank applicants for interviews and the match process. The self-assessments have been shown to predict students’ readiness to take the exam when taken in test-like conditions. For several years, the National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) has offered Comprehensive Basic Science Self-Assessments (CBSSAs) to assist students preparing for the United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) Step 1 examination.